An M1.4-class solar flare from sunspot region AR 4549 on Oct. 6 launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) with an Earth-directed component. NOAA's WSA-ENLIL model shows the leading edge reaching Earth around 05:00 UTC on Oct. 9.
Analysts at the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center estimate the cloud is moving at roughly 560 km/s. If a substantial part of it hits Earth, it could trigger a geomagnetic storm and push auroras to lower latitudes than usual.
Forecasters caution that arrival timing can shift, and the strength of any display depends heavily on the CME's magnetic orientation. Another period of enhanced geomagnetic activity is predicted around Oct. 11.